7 Big Trends that will Impact You and Your Business in 2023
This was originally published on Linkedin
Every year for more than 10 years I’ve shared my thoughts on key technology trends that will impact businesses ranging from startups to large corporations. My goal is to provide insights to business leaders, entrepreneurs and intrapreneurs. But maybe most importantly to reflect over where and how I can personally add the most value.
First a disclaimer. 90% of most technologies will remain the same in 2023. As Bill Gates once said, new technologies take much longer than we think to have an impact but once they do it often happens faster than expected. We talk about Mobile Apps, Lean UX, AI, VR/AR, Smart homes, Digital Transformation, Edge networks or Privacy for 5–10 years and then suddenly it’s just there as a part of everything.
Before we jump into the 2023 trends let’s review the 2022 predictions/insights and how they panned out.
1. Metaverse
“No quick wins” was my motto and I believe we can safely say that 2022 was not the year of the Metaverse and nor will it be in 2023. The underlying technology keeps evolving rapidly with the massive $10–15bn yearly investments by Meta. I’m confident that the metaverse with VR at the core will succeed but the question is how long it will take.
2. Crypto, NFTs & Web 3.0 go down and up
I predicted continued growth in Web 3.0 and a crash in NFTs but didn’t see the big crash in bitcoin and other cryptos values. It’s been fascinating to see several new Web 3.0 funds raising money in 2022 and investments in this sector still going strong.
3. Digital Advertising Targeting Solved
My prediction was that we would find solutions to the big impact by Apple’s privacy move on Facebook advertising in 2022. Based on marketing podcasts and blogs in the second part of 2022 I would say this was also the case.
4. Become a techie without being a developer
I believed that 2022 would be a breakthrough year for no code / low code. The industry experienced over 30% growth and no code part of everyday life for startups and many corporate IT departments. Recent advancements in no code will continue drive this trend.
5. UX trumps Technology
This was more of an observation and recommendation than trend. However, we continued to see in 2022 that great UX including good performance is a winning concept that generally beats product features and price.
6. ESG = Fail but Impact is here to stay
This turned out to be very true. Throughout 2022 there was a big backlash against ESG funds. Both because we lack a clear definition of what constitutes an ESG compliant company or fund. For example Exxon is but Tesla is not according to S&P 500 ESG Index. In addition to this the fees are often higher and the returns in 2022 were lower due to the high performance of energy stocks (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-07/big-esg-funds-are-doing-worse-than-the-s-p-500-green-insight) .
7. AI is everywhere — you just don’t know it
Although it took some time 2022 ended with a huge hype around GTP-3 and the Open AI Chatbot. This trend is likely to continue in 2023 so keep reading below.
8. Macro — Everything is going to be ok
Clearly I should stick to technology trends and water filtration and stay away from macro trends and the economy. The invasion of Ukraine and high inflation throughout the year turned everything on its head.
Generously that’s 7 out of 8 right or partially right. More critically maybe it was 50% right.
Now let’s get straight into the 2023 trends.
7 Big Trends that will Impact You and Your Business in 2023
These are macro trends, technologies and best practices that truly impact your everyday business. If you’re not on top of these topics / trends in 2023 you will be at a disadvantage. Most of them are based on my own experience of TAPP Water, app development projects I’ve supported and other startups I’m involved in.
1. The role of AI
AI is both over and under hyped. GPT-3 by OpenAI in particular is a big step change. It has the ability to generate human-like text and to perform a wide range of language-based tasks, such as translation, summarization, and question answering. GPT-3 will be used in a variety of applications, including chatbots, language translation, and content generation.
Was the above paragraph written by AI or a human? (jump to the end to find the answer)
While GPT-3 can produce text that is highly readable and sometimes difficult to distinguish from human-generated text, it is not yet capable of generating completely novel and coherent text without some input or prompts. It also lacks context and depth beyond the user input. This means that it may produce text that is superficially appropriate but lacks a deeper understanding of the subject matter.
Try out GPT-3 on http://chat.openai.com/chat and DALL.E 2 on https://openai.com/dall-e-2/ if you haven’t already.
As part of better understanding how any company or organisation can leverage AI in their every day work, I joined xHuman Labs as a cofounder in January 2023.
2. Content as a business differentiator
Traditional marketing and advertising is telling the world you’re a rock star. Content Marketing is showing the world that you are one.
- Robert Rose
Build your brand with advertising and you will have to keep on spending. Become the source of relevant and high quality content in your field and you have a sustainable business.
This is especially worth reiterating if we end up in a recession in 2023.
As an example my own business TAPP Water has about 120,000 organic visitors per month to our website. All the content is about tap water and this generates a strong base of revenue without any advertising.
Of course this doesn’t work for everyone but I urge every business today to look closely at their content marketing strategy for 2023.
3. Lean UX and Human Centric Design
It’s now been 10 years since Lean UX was published by Jeff Gothelf. Despite the huge success of these principles, most startups and businesses still don’t do hypothesis validation, cross-functional teams, prototyping, user testing and other core elements of Lean UX and Human Centric Design.
Until the technology exists to read each other’s minds, how can you know what a customer is thinking?
Ask them!
To be honest we struggle with this within TAPP Water as well. With limited resources we have to do user testing with friends, colleagues in our co-working space, family and friends.
Businesses that double down on Lean UX and other human centric design methodologies will be the winners in 2023.
4. Caching and CDNs for faster web and apps
Speed matters. The faster and more efficient your website loads the better visitors and Google will score it. This is nothing new but despite this many websites struggle with performance over time.
Caching and CDNs have existed for more than 10 years with Cloudflare, Akamai, Amazon and Google among the major players. For startups, Bunny has popped up as a great affordable alternative. Make sure you review your website and app performance monthly to ensure that it doesn’t degrade.
5. Creator economy loses steam
With 99% of the value generated by the top 0.1–1% many others will give up and look for other opportunities. As the top creators like Mr Beast are now cross-sharing on Meta/IG, Youtube and TikTok there are no longer early adopter advantages. Here’s an example of a YouTuber with 37,000 subscribers making $2.50 per hour.
The impact by the average influencer for brands has also significantly diminished. Influencer marketing doesn’t generate the same returns anymore as reach has gone down and consumers have become more savvy. Although this is bad news for most new and established creators it will create new opportunities for content marketing (see trend 3) and partnerships.
At TAPP Water we will be partnering with top talent in several markets in 2023. More about this in February.
6. Consumer sustainability fails
Following last year’s prediction on ESG I must unfortunately predict that consumer driven sustainability will fail in 2023. While a few people go vegan, zero waste, buy local and second hand, etc the fact is that most people don’t. Recycling rates have gone down in the United States in the past 10 years and while they have improved slightly in Europe, the plastic waste mountain continues to grow. With inflation still high and recession looming consumers will go for the lowest cost or the products they are used to. This is bad news for the planet.
Image from the UN announcement
But there is good news as well. Local regulation and interstate agreements at the UN level are working. Many countries are taking major efforts to cut down on waste going into rivers and the oceans, reducing the use of single use plastics and improving waste management.
In 2022 the UNEA Resolution, ‘End Plastic Pollution’, was signed off by 175 states and will be turned into a legally binding agreement by 2024. Most of the countries that signed up have already begun to take action. The impact of this is much greater than all sustainability initiatives by consumer goods companies combined.
Every business should make their best effort in 2023 to improve sustainability by reducing the carbon footprint and waste. But also keep in mind that for example biodegradable plastics, recycled plastic and use of paper and glass to replace plastic is not solving the problem. We are just replacing one issue with another one. Regulation and industry collaboration are a necessity to reduce human impact on the planet.
When you look at initiatives to improve the environmental impact of your company try to look at in two ways:
- PR / Making you look good — the things the market and consumers care about
- Real impact — the things you really need to change to have an impact
Most likely they are not the same.
Another positive trend is higher energy prices in 2022 and 2023 as they are driving up demand for solar panels, other renewables, battery storage, smart thermostats and energy efficiency in general. Yes, higher energy prices are good for the planet!
7. The best and worst time for startups
2023 will be a great year for early stage startups. Thanks to layoffs at big tech companies there is more talent available while there is still considerable seed and A-round funding for great ideas. If you have an idea for a startup that clearly solves a problem and that has a credible business model then now is a good time to get the ball rolling.
Growth stage startups or startups that have burned through their A-round on the other hand will struggle. Valuations have dropped dramatically and there is no cheap cash available anymore. I’ve seen several great growth stage startups fail to raise capital in the past 6 months. The one thing they have in common is that they are at least 1 year away from profitability.
At TAPP Water we faced the terrible prospect of having to raise new capital at the end of 2022. We did it at a very high cost to the founders and early investors. In 2023 we will focus on profitable growth with a 2–3 minimum runway with cash at hand.
If you’re lucky enough to have raised substantial amounts in the past 2 years then hold tight to whatever’s left.
8. The other technology trends
Is technology development really accelerating or is it slowing down? What about new innovations and technology in Blockchain/Web3, IoT, Metaverse, 3D printing, Quantum Computing and Cybersecurity?
These technologies will continue to evolve fast and for some companies and industries they may constitute major breakthroughs. However, for most consumers and businesses they probably won’t have a big impact in 2023. Sorry Gartner, Forrester, IDG etc.
Final words
Thank you for taking the time to read my somewhat repetitive trends. As most new trends and technologies take many years to evolve, you should expect to read the same thing over and over again until suddenly it’s part of your everyday life.
My personal mission is to reduce human impact on the planet to leave it a bit better for the next generation. I believe we can achieve this with collaboration, regulation, technology and respect for nature and our fellow human beings.
Other than this the big news for me in 2023 is that we are welcoming a third child in June and that I will be taking over as CEO of TAPP Water from February. I will also be an advisor to Liminal Agency, a new innovative app development agency. More about this later.
That’s all for this time.
As always, send me your comments and feedback.
* The second paragraph in the AI prediction was written by OpenAI Chat.
