8 trends and predictions for success in 2022
It’s time again for my annual predictions and insights. My focus this year is to digest the general trends and turn them into valuable insights. How can you make the most of AI, Cryptos/Web 3.0, the Metaverse, No code, ESG investing, Digital advertising and user experience?
Looking back at 2021
But first a quick review of my 2021 predictions available here: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/changing-behaviour-less-advertising-greenwashing-7-other-magnus-jern/
1. Algorithmic Commerce and social shopping — Yes! Especially TikTok and Instagram
2. Conversational commerce is embraced by retailers leveraging whatsapp, messenger and other messaging platforms — Partially. I tried engaging with 10 brands via Facebook messenger through their pages in November 2021. 5 didn’t respond and nor did they offer any kind of chat/messaging on their websites.
3. Less advertising and more PR — No. I got this completely wrong although I think the insight was still right. Elon Musk continued to generate tons of free marketing.
4. Greenwashing and unsustainable consumerism continues — Yes, unfortunately. Coca Cola, BP, Nestle, H&M, Nike (the list goes on forever) continue to promote themselves as sustainable brands with what is mostly greenwashing.
5. Social media influencers are here to stay — Yes. Brands continued to use influencers as a core part of their marketing strategy.
6. Back to the office — Yes, most startups I’ve spoken to have tried to get the teams back into the office at least a few days per week from the 2nd half of 2021. All said it was important if not critical for future success. But there are also companies such as Spotify that have said they will allow remote work indefinitely.
7. Covid-19 is so pre-2021 — Not really. Covid continues to dominate the media and bug us after a hopefully spring and summer. But I’m still over it.
8. Human centric design is the winning formula — Yes. Winning startups like Coinbase, Shopify, Stripe, Klarna, etc continue to win thanks to relentless focus on user experience.
9. Green tech is becoming the hottest investment topic — Yes. The number of new sustainability and impact funds continued to break records with e.g. Worldfund launched in 2021. Assets under management in sustainability-focused funds neared $2 trillion after record inflows of $185 billion during the first quarter.
Overall score: 6.5 out of 9 but maybe some of the predictions were a bit too low hanging fruits.
Time to put 2021 behind us and look forward.
Let’s jump into 2022 with some bolder predictions and insights.
2022 Trends and Predictions
Here are my top 8 predictions and insights of how the key trends will impact you and/your business in 2022.
1. Metaverse
Metaverse is defined as “virtual-reality spaces in which users can interact with a computer-generated environment and other users (e.g. avatars)”. It’s been somewhat overhyped due to Facebook’s rebranding as Meta but long term this is a big deal. The number of sold VR devices actually outnumbered Sony PlayStation sales in 2021 for the first time. In 2022 metaverse will grow but remains a niche primarily focused on games, sport/exercise and enterprise use cases. The metaverse will probably be proclaimed dead on arrival by some media outlets. If you see opportunities in the Metaverse, invest in the long term. This is not a quick win.
2. Crypto, NFTs & Web 3.0 go down and up
Web 3.0 is here to stay with a bumpy road ahead. NFTs like cyberpunks will crash by 50% or more but NFTs are here to stay as an underlying technology for collectables, fan clubs, and other content. Smart contracts, DeFi and DAOs is what drives interest among web 3.0/crypto investors. Focus on use cases where blockchain is really a game changer.
There is also a high likelihood of crypto values slowly continuing up and reach a new market peak during 2022. Continue to dollar average in cryptos for long term success. Timing the market is almost impossible.
3. Digital Advertising Targeting Solved
Facebook and it’s advertisers get back on track with accurate targeting thanks to new data sources and analysis despite the Apple privacy blocks. I also believe Apple will launch an advertising platform focused on privacy. I’m clearly not alone in thinking that this could be a really big deal. Having said this, any company that relies too much on Facebook (or another single platform) for advertising is at serious risk as CPAs keep on going up.
4. Become a techie without being a developer
I’ve been talking for years about how Low/No code platforms such as Outsystems, Appian and Salesforce Lightning have enabled innovative employees to increase automation and productivity without large scale enterprise IT projects. For start-ups these platforms have usually been disappointing as the UX/UI doesn’t meet high customer expectations for mobile. In the past year we’ve seen big improvements with several great examples of successful start-ups built on no code using e.g. Bubble, StackerHQ and Airtable. Here are some great examples. https://www.no-code.ch/blog-articles/the-10-most-impressive-startups-built-with-no-code
2022 is your chance to make your idea into reality for a first MVP without writing a single line of code. No more excuses.
5. UX trumps Technology
I know I keep repeating this but it’s because it’s critical to success. Great UX beats technology innovation almost every time when it comes to consumer products. Airbnb didn’t become successful because they had the best technology but because the UX was the best. If you haven’t already, read Lean UX and/or Send & Response to understand how you can implement and leverage user centric design. Invest in UX and user research in 2022 and your chance of success (or failing fast) will vastly improve.
6. ESG = Fail but Impact is here to stay
Ex-Blackrock executive is calling ESG investing, “sustain-a-babble”. Most ESG funds do nothing to reduce climate change impact. They are simply less bad than other funds. As more and more influential people are raising this issue, it’s likely that we will start seeing a change in 2022 towards real sustainability and impact funds. The Worldfund, Generation and Breakthrough Energy are great examples of this. Look for real impact start-ups and funds to invest in and don’t buy the ESG BS.
More importantly, start-ups with a strong purpose to make the world a better place will have a much greater chance of success in 2022. Attract the best people, impact fund and get customers to choose you over the competition. Be honest about your purpose and impact. Greenwashing doesn’t work in the long run.
7. AI is everywhere — you just don’t know it
AI is already used in your searches (Google), media consumption (YouTube, TikTok, Netflix), translations, credit card risk assessments, e-mail spam filters, camera app, adverts you see, promotions and much more. In 2022 most big companies will be powered by AI, often without even realising it. Advertising is already AI powered, their store or restaurant staff scheduling and resourcing tools will be done with predictive analysis, manufacturing and inventory management likewise and the list goes on. The reason for this is that almost every major Cloud or SaaS company is now enhancing their service offering with AI tools. The time of AI bullshit bingo is over. It’s real!
Read The Age of AI: And Our Human Future by Eric Schmidt for more insights of what the future holds.
8. Macro — Things are going to be ok
I’m not an economist or epidemiologist but it doesn’t prevent me from making predictions. I believe inflation goes back to normal in Europe but continues to ride high in the US due to labour and supply chain shortages. Globally it seems under control. The tech boom keeps going strong with the stock market up 20% in 2022. Continue to buy low fee index funds and don’t try to time the market unless you have a real unfair advantage.
And finally science will beat Covid with a combination of vaccines and treatments.
That’s all for this time. I hope these predictions will stimulate good conversions whether they are right or wrong. I’m confident that some of them will help you succeed in 2022.
I will continue to walk the talk at TAPP Water with lean UX, marketing and AI as well as with my crypto, equity and start-ups investments in 2022.
Still buying bottled water? Use promocode “magnus30” on tappwater.co for my friends 30% discount if you want to try one of our products.
As always, reach out if you have feedback, questions or comments.
Happy holidays!
Magnus
Note: This is for entertainment purposes only and not investment advice. :)
